July 11th

Sales Letters In Real Estate

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Real Estate by Studio One-One

realty investment software

From Lender Processing Services: LPS' May Mortgage Monitor Report: Increase in Rate of New Delinquencies; Decline in Number of Delinquent Loans Becoming Current

The May Mortgage Monitor report released today by Lender Processing Services, Inc. … shows a 2.3 percent month-over-month increase in the nation's home loan delinquency rate to 9.2 percent in May 2010, and that early-stage delinquencies are increasing as normal seasonal improvements taper off. This report includes data as of May 31, 2010.

According to the Mortgage Monitor report, the percentage of mortgage loans in default beyond 90 days increased slightly, while both delinquency and foreclosure rates continue to remain relatively stable at historically high levels. There are currently more than 7.3 million loans currently in some stage of delinquency or REO.

The report also shows that the average number of days for a loan to move from 30-days delinquent to foreclosure sale continues to increase, and is now at an all-time high of 449 days, resulting in an increase in “shadow” foreclosure inventory.

LPS shows 9.2% delinquent and another 3.18% in foreclosure for a total of 12.38%. I'm not sure about the days to foreclosure numbers (other sources show fewer), but they have steadily increased. For delinquency rates I usually use the quarterly report from the MBA.

Here is the LPS monthly report. The increase in early stage delinquencies might be seasonal, but it is definitely bad news. And what happens when house prices start falling again later this year as I expect?

For more, from Diana Golobay at HousingWire: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Swells to 9.2% in May: LPS

And from Diana Olick at CNBC: New Loan Delinquencies on the Rise Again

The housing crisis is still ongoing. While the national conversation has shifted away from foreclosures in favor of unemployment and big government bailouts, many Americans are still in trouble with their mortgages. I seem to remember there used to be a time where, if you were in trouble with a loan, you would pay any little bit you could. Maybe you paid half at the beginning of the month and half on your next paycheck. Maybe it was even less than that. What counted was that you were making the effort. You work with your lender to avoid going into foreclosure at all costs.

That was then. Now, the new hotness is just to say to hell with paying your mortgage. Homeowners are letting themselves go into foreclosure with no intention of paying their mortgages, so that they can use the extra money on truly important things… like going out to eat at Outback and taking trips to the Hard Rock Casino.

For Alex Pemberton and Susan Reboyras, foreclosure is becoming a way of life — something they did not want but are in no hurry to get out of.

Foreclosure has allowed them to stabilize the family business. Go to Outback occasionally for a steak. Take their gas-guzzling airboat out for the weekend. Visit the Hard Rock Casino.

“Instead of the house dragging us down, it’s become a life raft,” said Mr. Pemberton, who stopped paying the mortgage on their house here last summer. “It’s really been a blessing.”

A growing number of the people whose homes are in foreclosure are refusing to slink away in shame. They are fashioning a sort of homemade mortgage modification, one that brings their payments all the way down to zero. They use the money they save to get back on their feet or just get by.

This type of modification does not beg for a lender’s permission but is delivered as an ultimatum: Force me out if you can. Any moral qualms are overshadowed by a conviction that the banks created the crisis by snookering homeowners with loans that got them in over their heads.

“I tried to explain my situation to the lender, but they wouldn’t help,” said Mr. Pemberton’s mother, Wendy Pemberton, herself in foreclosure on a small house a few blocks away from her son’s. She stopped paying her mortgage two years ago after a bout with lung cancer. “They’re all crooks.”

Get that? In today’s loony liberal land, it’s all the lender’s fault. It couldn’t possibly be the homeowner’s fault that they bought a house they couldn’t afford. Right?

Maybe not. The couple quoted in this story, Mr. Pemberton and Ms. Reboyras, aren’t exactly blameless in this situation. Just like most people who go into foreclosure, really.

The couple owe $280,000 on the house, where they live with Ms. Reboyras’s two daughters, their two dogs and a very round pet raccoon named Roxanne. The house is worth less than half that amount — which they say would be their starting point in future negotiations with their lender.

“If they took the house from us, that’s all they would end up getting for it anyway,” said Ms. Reboyras, 46.

One reason the house is worth so much less than the debt is because of the real estate crash. But the couple also refinanced at the height of the market, taking out cash to buy a truck they used as a contest prize for their hired animal trappers.

It was a stupid move by their lender, according to Mr. Pemberton. “They went outside their own guidelines on debt to income,” he said. “And when they did, they put themselves in jeopardy.”

So they refinanced their home to buy a new truck — not even a truck that they needed for themselves, but a truck to give away. And yet, this was a stupid move by the lender?! Right. It’s the big bad predatory lender’s fault for not telling poor Mr. Pemberton that he was a big fat idiot.

And by coincidence, I’m sure, Mr. Pemberton and Ms. Reboyras’ lawyer seeks out these kinds of cases and encourages people to not pay their mortgages. This way, you get to live in your house — for free!

Both generations of Pembertons have hired a local lawyer, Mark P. Stopa. He sends out letters — 1,700 in a recent week — to Floridians who have had a foreclosure suit filed against them by a lender.

Even if you have “no defenses,” the form letter says, “you may be able to keep living in your home for weeks, months or even years without paying your mortgage.”

About 10 new clients a week sign up, according to Mr. Stopa, who says he now has 350 clients in foreclosure, each of whom pays $1,500 a year for a maximum of six hours of attorney time. “I just do as much as needs to be done to force the bank to prove its case,” Mr. Stopa said.

It’s sickening, really. There are people out there milking the system for all its worth, taking no responsibility for their bad decisions, and then blaming the lenders when they end up in trouble. It’s usually the bad decisions of the borrowers that put them into foreclosure to begin with, and then they just want to sit back and do nothing, because somehow, everyone is apparently entitled to live in their home without paying the mortgage on it now. There are always alternatives, ways to avoid foreclosure. It isn’t like selling the home isn’t an option, but no one wants to do that. They can’t renegotiate their loan either, because the lenders are big bad predatory crooks out to get them. Apparently, the right thing to do is to squat in a house you don’t even fully own yet without paying what you legally owe.

In reality, this is theft. It’s a crime, and the bums should be thrown out on the street like they deserve. I have no sympathy for someone who pays nothing on their mortgage and willingly goes into foreclosure so that they can go out to eat, go on airboat rides, and gamble at the Hard Rock Casino.

Part of this is thanks to Democrats and Obama in particular. The endless demonizing of Wall Street and banks and big business has given people like these bums a ready-made excuse to stop paying their mortgages, yet still expect to live in their house. These people said so themselves. The banks are crooks. Lenders are greedy. They’re getting what’s coming to them, right? No one forced these people to take these loans, no one made them refinance, but it’s always someone else’s fault.

I understand that people sometimes fall on hard times. Honest people don’t use that as an excuse to abandon all responsibility and ignore their own bad decision-making. What is happening here is theft and the lowlifes should be thrown out on the street where they belong.

Hey, if they live on the street, they can still use their money on what really matters, like steak at Outback and gambling at a casino.

Follow Cassy on Twitter and read more of her work at CassyFiano.com and Hard Corps Wife.

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
To see the comments on the original post, look here.




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April 28th

Preforeclosure

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Real Estate by Studio One-One

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Florida Mortgage Bankers Push to Undermine Foreclosure Mediation, Call It ‘Homeowner Relief’

Our guest blogger is Andrew Jakabovics, the Associate Director for Housing and Economics at the Center for American Progress Action Fund, and Alon Cohen.

The Florida Bankers Association has been pushing hard in that state’s legislature for passage of the cynically named Homeowner Relief and Housing Recovery Act. The Act is pure doublespeak; it speeds up foreclosures, reduces the homeowner’s involvement in the process, and circumvents Florida’s burgeoning foreclosure mediation program and replaces it with an optional informal meeting of the parties. Luckily, the bills have been tabled for this session, but homeowners, housing counselors, and community advocates — who have all vociferously protested the bill — should expect them to reappear.

Attempting to Move Foreclosures Outside the Court

The Act seeks to radically change the foreclosure process in Florida, which is currently a judicial foreclosure state, meaning servicers must file a case in court to foreclose on a property. This gives homeowners the opportunity to appear, present evidence, and – most recently – negotiate with the servicer in a mediation session. The Act would create a new option in Florida – nonjudicial foreclosure, in which the servicer sends notice to the homeowner that it is foreclosing on the property and can do just that around 90 days later.

Worse, even before they actually take possession of the house, the new law would allow servicers who wish to sell the foreclosed property at auction or to market it for sale on the open market to enter the property and put up a “FOR SALE” sign or its equivalent.

Homeowners could shift the foreclosure back to court by submitting a request within 45 days of receiving the notice of sale, but there is solid evidence that opt-in programs reach far fewer people than opt-out ones. (Under the current judicial process, a borrower can opt-out by simply failing to appear in court.) Philadelphia’s foreclosure mediation program sees a participation rate of 75 percent while Connecticut’s program, saw participation rates of 36-39 percent while it was opt-in. (They have since changed to automatically schedule mediation sessions.)

Circumventing Foreclosure Mediation

Moving foreclosures outside the court system would also circumvent Florida’s newly-unified foreclosure mediation program. In late December 2009, the state Supreme Court issued an order requiring all judicial circuits to implement automatic foreclosure mediation programs, based on successful programs in Miami-Dade, Okechobee, and Okaloosa counties. Since May 2009, parties in over 2,000 foreclosure cases have reached settlements that keep Miami homeowners in their homes.

Under the new regime, the parties receive notice of a scheduled mediation when the case is filed; the homeowner may appear with an attorney or housing counselor, and the servicer must have available a representative ready to make a deal. The $750 cost is borne by the servicer. As in any mediation, the parties are just required to meet, not to settle. Settlement is only appropriate if it is in the best interest of both parties.

The Act replaces this with an informal meeting. Under the Act the servicer must schedule an informal meeting if the homeowner requests one. The meeting conditions fall far short of mediation:

• Face-to-face negotiations are important for creating successful outcomes, but the new law would allow the meeting can take place by phone “or other reasonable means,” with the decision left up to the servicer.
• In mediation, the servicer must make available a representative with authority to agree to settlement terms. In this meeting, the servicer’s representative must have only the “authority to terminate the foreclosure if the representative determines that there is no legal basis for foreclosure.” Settlement is not mentioned.
• In judicial foreclosure, the servicer – as plaintiff – bears some of the responsibility to provide financial documentation necessary for settlement negotiations. The Act places this burden squarely on the homeowner, who must provide documentation and prove to the servicer the grounds for a forbearance or modification.

There is No Homeowner Relief in This Act

With a name this promising, we were hoping to find legislation that could help Florida’s homeowners land on their feet while netting maximum value for servicers. Instead, we found Florida Bankers Association pushing an Act that speeds up foreclosures, limits or removes homeowners’ participation in the process, and seeks to circumvent Florida’s recent efforts at proven foreclosure relief through mediation, the better to relieve Florida residents of their homes.

It is April 12, 2010. Having just returned home from my morning dog walk, I replayed my messages. A voice identifying itself as representing my lender called. The man on the end of that voice takes little time in informing me that the documents that my lender requested earlier for consideration of a loan modification are all in.

We have been going through this dance the last few months where my lender requests a list of documents. I respond by supplying those documents and then check back with the lender days later. It is then that my lender requests either a different series of documents or summarily informs me that they did not receive the documents already requested and sent. It is a dance that provides more time, but that also creates inordinate angst in that I have no sense of where my home loan and my life and living space are headed.

As I listen there is a downturn in his tone as he speaks and informs me that though I have complied with all of their requests, the fact that I filed no federal taxes over a period disqualify me from continued consideration for a loan modification. He continues that he has read my explanation and appreciates that my father, sister and partner have died, all in a very short period. But he then concludes that these conditions carry no weight in the decision to disallow the continued consideration of my loan modification. I reflect that this is odd because if my lender knew that they would not accept explanations as to non- compliance, then why ask for the explaining document in the first place? Others farther along in this process have told me that this process by the Obama/Geithner cabal is not seriously focused on helping the public counter the excesses of the business community.

“Had Arabs or Chinese investors moved to blight the American housing landscape with policies creating massive foreclosures and displacing our friends and neighbors, citizens would have locked and loaded their Second Amendment granted weaponry with more than tea bags and the surrounding philosophy. Why then has there been no outcry when banks have done the same thing?”

My thoughts immediately return to the notion that the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP,) forwarded by the Obama Administration, was not given the teeth necessary to “buy down” mortgages or eliminate them altogether. This seems glaringly and frustratingly peculiar since those loans have already been paid for. America's bailout of the banking system paid for my mortgage and all the other “toxics” that are out there. The federal government located and released those funds in record time. The rationale was that the nation would suffer irreparable short-term damage, as the nation's options were sorely limited. It also saddens me that the man that many African-Americans revered and pushed so stridently to the White House functioned as any other non-African-American would have done showing no particular compassion or appreciation for the lowest rung of the public once in office. It becomes clear to me that the President did what the business community told him to do.

Of course I am unhappy with a nation that touts its virtues while acting altogether diametrically opposite to its ethos. Meanwhile families are moved from their homes to live in cars and in the streets. Homelessness has become faire that should never be the side dish, much less the staple of an evolved society and the home of the richest nation in world history. My family's personal legacy thus amounts to nothing as some anonymous guy with an education that comes nowhere near my own and a workload the size of Wyoming, makes life and death decisions about my time and place on this planet. And his decision is all based on whether some investor group gets a windfall increase on an undeserved return at my expense. I wonder if Wachovia, my bank recently taken over by Donald Stumps at Wells Fargo, knows that both my parents have been recently nominated for the Congressional Medal of Freedom Award. Even a nomination for the nation's highest award should be worth something…no? Then I realize that dead Black patriots don't pay mortgages or taxes. It is all so surreal.

But first things first! There is some backdrop that should be shared here. There is a history that helps bring us to this point and some of that history should be shared here. Much of this nightmare began when I was forced to seek a loan on a home that my family had already owned. Months before, I had used monies received from my sister's having passed on to pay off the remaining mortgage on this home. We had lived in the home since its first having been built thirty plus years ago. We are the only family that has ever occupied this space.

My mother died here, my sister, love Lori and father, all dead now, had lived and loved and laughed here for more than thirty years. I had just spent nearly three hundred thousand dollars refurbishing the property in hopes of selling it and using the revenues to initiate an international children's literacy project. And all this history and future were being terminated by an anonymous voice on the other end of the telephone. But earlier still there had been another telephone call to help initiate these proceedings.

Two plus years earlier, the shock was chilling when I finally understood what was being said. The voice at the other end of the telephone had just informed me that the fifty thousand dollars that I thought was being held in an account was not available to me after all. Recognizing that the Bush Administration was coming to an end and like Bautista in Cuba, they were about to gut the national treasury before they left, I desired to repair and then sell our home. I reluctantly took out a loan to “bridge” returning our family's investment. My plan was to sell the home and purchase something less expensive in another region of the nation. The excess return would be used to buy books for children in America and countries around the globe.

Texas housed several opportunities to extend my efforts towards promoting international literacy for children and I knew that this window of opportunity was closing. Upon taking out an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM) I had understood that as a condition of my loan, I could still retrieve monies for emergent situations. I still had a repair or two to effect on my refurbished home before placing it on the market. It was the Fall of 2008 and the deaths of my sister, my deceased love, my parents and my dog's had all taken their toll. I was reeling but thinking clearly and acting responsibility.

I'd been forced to stop work as a realtor and business consultant to take care of the business associated with those who had passed on. The “Gatlin” rapid fire of death in my family had forced my accommodating the issues of one death after the other. I had never been allowed any adequate personal healing–coming to grips–period. I was dangling in this netherworld where I could find no income to stave off this newly looming catastrophe while becoming catatonic at my lender's having reneged on its commitment to supply me with the promised capital to repair, sell and save my home. I felt like the woman who returns home to find that her boyfriend, who made his getaway in her car, has robbed her. The thought was sickening.

“Since before the New Deal, property has been considered a sacred right of Americans but today, the right of the poor to own a home is constantly challenged by conservative business interests.”

Months earlier I had contacted my lender to suggest ways to avert this calamity. Their various representatives were everything from commiserative to quietly hostile but there existed no mechanism whereby I might input ideas to help save people's homes. They made it harshly clear that the bank was not interested in any methodology that I might offer to save homes. I was not an employee of their system at a level high enough to warrant being listened to. The bank Vice-President that I continued to contact became weary in telling me that they just weren't interested in anything that I might have to offer relative to my loan or anyone else's. They had committed to their “lack of consummate plan” and going to honor it. Had I sent thirteen more correspondences, it would not have mattered.

I had worked out several options focused at saving mortgages for people. One involved the eventual “buy down” now being explored by the Bank of America. It was odd to me that ideas that I came up with, without being an economist, eventually would become policy even though the very banking institution that I was attempting to work with would not embrace my offering. It became clear to me that the deal the Obama Administration made with the receding Bush Administration in taking office involved maintaining the status quo and offering no options that would truly remove the tightening fiscal tourniquet from the throats of the American people. No, the banking system had the eight year old by the throat and was not going to let him up.

Tearing at me was a great sense of failure. My father had been one of the eleven individuals responsible for introducing to the world the final incarnation of the electronic computing device. Yes my dad was one of those people who brought to the world the computer in 1953. He had also been a member of the team that helped Chuck Yeager topple the sound barrier in 1947. For her part, the United Nations, Holland, France, Germany and the City and County of San Diego had acknowledged my mother posthumously for her international efforts for children in education. These were august achievements for any family. And the loss of the only remaining symbol of that achievement certainly weighed heavily on me as my gambit to swap our legacy for the children's future was blowing up in my face. My life was quickly becoming a microcosm of how someone else's miss-managed derivatives were evolving into my own nightmare.

Recently, Conservative voices have pushed that home ownership is not a right and that all Americans should not be allowed to believe that they have a right to such ownership. It is instructive that the overly vocal right wing Conservatives on the one hand, usually the clarions of personal rights, would tell those less advantaged what rights they do not have. It was my impression that all not expressly given to the federal government belonged to the states. Do I have a right to live in a home in Texas but not in Oklahoma?

I would argue that the “pursuit of happiness,” though admittedly more accessible through the mobility of an automobile, cannot be achieved without the right to a safe living space for families and individuals. Our housing and lending practices are all so very predatory in this nation. The founding fathers would never have assented to that. They formed their ideas about nationhood long before Adam Smith and John Maynard Keynes were heard murmuring in the halls of academia. Both those gentlemen were attempting to devise and rationalize a “moral” lexicon for the fair distribution of goods and services. Nothing that modern banking does even closely approximates what Smith and Keynes were attempting. The founding fathers certainly would never have condoned banking returns on investment taking precedence over shelter for children and families. It is only the most distorted of thinking that forwards this philosophy.

So much for the primacy of allowing the news value of events to determine the news!

And the Fourth Estate has been frighteningly complicit in not carrying out its mandate on this issue. The New York and Washington based periodicals especially, have waved their owner's banners of ideology, while abdicating responsibility relative to truly informing the public of its options. A democracy cannot exist without informed decisions or a populace that can make sense of that information. It was becoming clear with each refusal that not only are there no free lunches, but that there are no free refills on drinks either. And even your coffee is served with ice in it–no substitutions!

So in a nutshell, here is my take on the current foreclosure process in America. First, the banking system now in place should have been told by the federal government that they would henceforth be monitored with a whole new set of guidelines and oversight. The forces that caused this national and international meltdown are still in place and show no signs of being corrected soon. Secondly, those banks should have been informed that, both by Presidential edict and Congressional law, they would themselves be responsible for the loss in value to homes now depreciated in the marketplace. Acquiescing to the investor bypasses the reality that the American people are the first “investors” to be paid when the banking industry's malfeasance is responsible for the destruction of their economy. Any banking institution unwilling to abide by that edict should have been suspended from banking practices in America for a ten-year period.

Third, a moratorium should have been imposed on all investment having to do with federal dollars and any concessions to the banking industry. All banking rules and laws should have been suspended with the advent of a new form of “fiscal martial law.” Fourth, the electronics industry should have been encouraged to do what “Google” and the like are already doing. What's wrong with the advantages that can be had through “CLOUD” banking? We could streamline much of the 'fiscal fat' with just a little creative input. My doctoral work was at both Northwestern University and at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and I know freshmen that could positively change banking in less than a semester.

Though most Americans cannot conceive of it, they are in a mortal battle with business interests for their very souls. They are in a life and death struggle for the futures of their progeny and they substitute fluff for substance, tea parties for the revocation of licensure of the banking industry and elimination of several rogue business practices.

Some forty years ago in San Diego, California, one of the ship builders there decided to show its clout by paying off its labor force in silver dollars. The company flooded the San Diego economy with hard currency and that lesson has not been lost on city government officials in San Diego yet today. The banking/investment community in America just beat up your eight year old. And they are now daring you to say anything about it as they go after your toddler.

As for me, my age (not my inclination) represents that portion of the demographic that will take a beating and do nothing about it. The data clearly show that above seventy-five years of age is the best place to clear them out, but the repercussions of putting granny out of her home might be more than are a banker's preference. No, the forty-five to sixty-five year old set is not known for any activist politics. They will however drive their motor homes down the road to the next cookout to protest taxes and the lack of steak fajitas with their chicken at the barbecue this weekend. The Wells Fargo Stagecoach image comes to mind here except that in the revised image they're not bringing you money.

It should be appreciated that band-aids on a gaping cut will never stop the bleeding, especially when those band-aids are placed on the knuckles of the aggressor who caused the damage in the first place. The Obama Administration could learn much more about civic first aid. As for me, sadly, it will be too late to save our home and legacy; but then again, so much for the audacity of hope.




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April 8th

The Realty Market

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Real Estate Series by Studio One-One

marketing for real estate agents

After a historic real estate crash, we're all understandably wary about investing in property. For those in the position to spend serious amounts of money on property, however, the world's great cities seem to have lost little of their luster.

With the markedly affluent buyer in mind, Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank have put together an in-depth look at the world's most attractive real estate markets. Their annual Global Wealth Report ranks the world's leading cities on several factors, including economic activity, political power (always a plus for the rich buyer), knowledge and influence (who wouldn't want more of that?) and quality of life.

The result is a composite look at the cities that will be attracting the biggest share of high-net worth individuals — 71 percent of whom, according to the Global Wealth Report's survey, say 2010 will be a good year to invest in real estate.

With that mild bit of reassurance in mind, check out the world's most valuable real estate markets below:

Awful Clubs and Soulless Condos, Together at Last

Are you one of those “young people whose true religion is music?” Marketing consultants have determined the proper place for you to live: in a gleaming, Miami Beach-style condo on West 30th street. Where music lives!

The New York Times reports that “Ohm,” one of the many indistinguishable new neon-bathed condo towers that infest the once-desolate edges of Manhattan like the tortured souls of tranny hookers past, has discovered how to draw in the high-paid young creative types it desperately needs to unload its soulless apartments on: with music! They hired some singer from East Williamsburg to play in the lobby. Instant club night! Whee.

“This is not for people in their 50s, people with kids,” [a marketing consultant for the "boutique hotel" style condo] said. “It's for young people whose true religion is music.” …

“You're not going to have elderly people, people with six kids living in the building,” [a 29 year-old building resident who moved to Ohm because it was cooler than Midtown] said. “You're going to have other young professionals looking to have a cool environment to live in.”

Now if marketing consultants can just figure out how to, say, bulldoze the Apollo Theater and build a condo tower on top of it complete with free weekend Justin Bieber concerts, edgy artistic New York will be fully revived.

Send an email to Hamilton Nolan, the author of this post, at Hamilton@gawker.com.




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April 1st

Real Estate and MLS Listings

Filed under Real Estate Agents | No Comments

Real Estate by Studio One-One

Real estate agents On the internet

After a historic real estate crash, we're all understandably wary about investing in property. For those in the position to spend serious amounts of money on property, however, the world's great cities seem to have lost little of their luster.

With the markedly affluent buyer in mind, Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank have put together an in-depth look at the world's most attractive real estate markets. Their annual Global Wealth Report ranks the world's leading cities on several factors, including economic activity, political power (always a plus for the rich buyer), knowledge and influence (who wouldn't want more of that?) and quality of life.

The result is a composite look at the cities that will be attracting the biggest share of high-net worth individuals — 71 percent of whom, according to the Global Wealth Report's survey, say 2010 will be a good year to invest in real estate.

With that mild bit of reassurance in mind, check out the world's most valuable real estate markets below:

We have been hearing about the coming commercial real estate crash for the last two years. Judging by the increasing amount of fretting by economists and the Fed, it may arrive in force this year. The current equities rally is long in the tooth. “Trash” stocks have been bid up beyond reality. Excessive optimism about the health of real estate and the health of the economy has led to the bid up of commercial real estate stocks. Almost all indicators on real estate have been negative since the first of the year. The recent rise in long term Treasury bond yields has made those negative indicators seem even more worrisome.

Most commercial real estate loans are much shorter than residential loans. The typical length is 7 to 10 years, but they may be as short as 3 to 5 years. Normally new loans will replace the expiring loans. Prices of commercial real estate are already below 2004 levels. The peak in most areas was 2006. All of this means that a slew of commercial real estate loans will have to be replaced in the next 2 to 3 years. Many of those loans will be underwater. It will be nearly impossible to get new loans. Many companies may walk away from underwater properties. Even major banks such as Morgan Stanley (MS) may go this route. It may hand its creditors the keys to its $2.4B investment in Japanese hotels (poor Citigroup (C)). Commercial real estate prices have gone down that much.

This is by no means an isolated incident. Morgan Stanley walked away from its $6.5B investment in the developer, Crescent Cities Real Estate Equities Co., and Morgan Stanley lost the Maui Prince Hotel to foreclosure last year. Many smaller players have to be in significantly more dire circumstances. This bubble is set to pop. When the bubble does pop, commercial real estate prices will plummet still further. In conjunction with the still troubled residential real estate market, this situation could cause another credit seize up.

Most expect the US economy to grow decently in 1H, but they expect it to lag in 2H of 2010 as stimulus monies are used up and/or withdrawn. We are in the good phase currently. Hotels and airlines have been showing signs of health. It is easy to be lulled into a false sense of security. There is no great winning scenario for commercial real estate. If the economy continues to look good, oil prices will go up. This will translate into higher airline ticket prices (and lower profits). The higher oil prices will hurt the US economy badly as it runs a huge oil trade deficit. This oil trade deficit will grow by roughly the size of the oil price hike. The economy, the airline bookings, and the hotel bookings will go down. If growth continues more slowly or not at all, it will not be enough to stave off the huge commercial real estate and residential real estate crises. So much for why the US needs to become energy independent, but that’s another topic.

Many of the commercial real estate stocks are currently sporting high PEs. They are forecast to earn more as the economy improves. However, there is no guarantee that the economy will improve that much. We have yet to really see what will happen as the stimulus measures are withdrawn. A lot of people have predicted a double dip. Meredith Whitney has predicted a huge drop in real estate prices. Such an occurrence might bring on another bout of deflation. The amount of real estate lending has already gone far down. The banks do not want to hold more mortgages than those they already have. The market for MBSs has dried up. The Fed is ending its MBS buying at the end of March. This is an extra $70B per month in mortgages that the banks will likely end up holding. This will make the banks even less willing to make further real estate loans. With the doubts of both the lenders and the buyers to contend with, real estate sales will likely trend downward. Ditto prices. Ditto the prices of commercial real estate equities.

I have identified four REITs that seem to fit the bill: AVB, BRE, WRE, and MAA. Their average PE is 47.28. Their average PE for FY2011 is 17.97. This is still high for stocks that may see their book values fall by 10%-20% in the next year. All are currently above their analysts’ average target price. None have great cash flow. The table below has a lot of the relevant statistics. The data is from Yahoo Finance and TD Ameritrade.

March 29th

The Realty Market

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NYC - Roosevelt Island: Tom Otterness' Marriage of Money and Real Estate by wallyg

sales letters for realtors

The challenge for builders these days is making less real estate seem like more — less square footage for less cash, while retaining a feeling of spaciousness.

Builder magazine recently spotlighted 10 communities where making do with less — less than 2,000 square feet, to be exact — is synonymous with builder's success. The communities range from Raleigh, North Carolina, to California's Central Valley. Some builders struggled through the recession while others took advantage of depressed prices to stake a claim.

Many appear quite innovative, bridging the needs of first-time home buyers with those of down-sizers. A few builders, however, have a more curious idea of what “smaller” means. The sales manager for Old Orchard Woods, in the Chicago suburbs, for instance, brags that some buyers wanted more than the one-bedroom homes the complex offered.

“Instead of just having homes at $257,000 for a one-bedroom,” she told Builder, ” we have sold homes up to $2.2 million” to buyers who bought three units and linked them together. Others included in the top 10 have upstairs bonus rooms that add square footage as they are finished over time.

Some of the complexes featured include:

  • Southern Oaks in Raleigh, where the single-story ranch houses attract the more mature audience and the average $192,000 price tag appeals to newbies.
  • Kings Trace homes in St. Augustine, Florida, where the 1,888-square-foot “Jessica” model, with three bedrooms and two baths, a great room, a “flex” room and second floor bonus space, is the best seller, going for just under $200,000.

Blanford Homes in Phoenix, was a golf course development that had fallen on hard times until it was scooped up by a new builder, who did away with basements and other amenities to create homes as small as 1,260 square feet. “The day I opened, we were selling a two-bedroom, two-bath, two-car garage Italian villa for $134,900,” said Mark Ramundo, the company's sales representative. “I have to tell you, people were throwing checks at me.”

This post is part of Mashable’s Spark of Genius series, which highlights a unique feature of startups. If you would like to have your startup considered for inclusion, please see the details here. The series is made possible by Microsoft BizSpark.

Name: Naked Apartments

Quick Pitch: The Match.com for NYC real estate. Naked Apartments pairs ideal brokers with the right renters to simplify the apartment search.

Genius Idea: If you live in New York, you know that there are two things that are almost impossible to find: a stable, healthy relationship… and an apartment. Well, Naked Apartments ain’t gonna find you a husband (unless you end up with your broker), but it will match you up — online dating-style — with the broker for you.

Naked Apartments soft launched back in September, and there are already 15,000 apartments available on the site — 5,000 with no fee, which is a major score in NYC, where broker’s fees can cost more than rent.

The site is pretty easy to use. Just sign up by creating a profile (just like you would on OKCupid or Nerve), but instead of entering in your hobbies and preference for 5-7 children, fill in all the usual apartment-hunting info: preferred neighborhood, rent range, etc. You can also indicate how dire it is that you move in by your preferred move-in date. Round it all out with a credit check and you’re good to go (this is a cool feature, too, as often the credit check comes after you’ve found a place and signed a ton of paperwork — seriously, scoring an apartment in NYC is like obtaining the Lost Ark).

The cool part of the site comes next. While you can still search for apartments (check out the brand new condo I found below whilst scanning the Brooklyn neighborhood of Williamsburg) all by your lonesome, brokers can also contact you based on your profile and show off their listings. Your interaction will be completely anonymous until you choose to exchange information.

We at the New York Mashable offices are completely down with any tool that makes finding new digs in the big city easier, and we like the anonymity and security that the site provides and we hope that Naked Apartments expands to other cities as well.

Naked Apartments also made a video tour for those less into reading. Check it out below:


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March 15th

The Realty Market

Filed under Realtors | No Comments

Calgary Real Estate & Interior Photography by fotographix.ca

realtor letters
Realpoint's latest report on commercial real estate is a doozy (PDF). You couldn't get a more sobering readout with a shower and a quart of hot coffee.

In January 2010, the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS [Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities] increased by another $4.3 billion, up to $45.94 billion from $41.64 billion a month prior. The overall delinquent unpaid balance is up 326% from one-year ago (when only $10.79 billion of delinquent unpaid balance was reported for January 2009), and is now over 20 times the low point of $2.21 billion in March 2007.

Overall, the total unpaid balance… for the January 2010 remittance was $797.3 billion… Both the delinquent unpaid balance and delinquency percentage over the trailing twelve months are… clearly trending upward.

The total balance of loans in Foreclosure and REO increased for the 27th straight month to $9.64 billion in January 2010 from $9.34 billion in December 2009 and $8.78 billion in November, despite ongoing liquidation activity. The chart also shows the rapid growth of loans reflecting 90-day delinquency in the past 12 months, transitioning swiftly from 30-day defaults into more distressed levels on a monthly basis in 2009, thus supporting our use of such as an early indicator of workouts to come for 2010.

Put simply: brace for more pain in the commercial real estate space.

Well, residential real estate must be improving, right? Not exactly. The following Blytic graphs depict the real estate price index (RPX) in various metro areas since the year 2000.

Here's the graph of home prices in Phoenix, Arizona. Gee, that home-buyer tax credit didn't really work, but at least he was historic, right, Melvin?

Say, Las Vegas is hopping.

Gun-free Chicago — my kind of town. Except for the hundreds of murders each year, thanks to the insane policies of Mayor Daley and the rest of the Democrat machine.

Miami – whyamee?

Mayor Kilpatrick (D-umb) and Governor Granholm (D-umber) certainly worked wonders in Detroit.

At least the masterful leadership in its city and surrounding counties — as well as ultra-careful land use policies — saved Atlanta from… oops.

Thankfully, the Obama administration has created or saved over ninety million green collar jobs. Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner's behavior has been beyond reproach. And the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act has brought much-needed tax relief for small businesses and 95 percent of all working families.

Thank heavens for President Obama and his crack staff of economic advisers who have brought so much real world experience to their current roles. If it weren't for them, I'm not sure what kind of shape this country would be in.

Hat tip: Mish.

I have seen various ups and downs in the real estate business in my time. Never has there been such a confluence of frustration, from investors to lenders to owners as I see today.

Investors believe they deserve better returns than they could receive at current prices, based on what they perceive as the level of risk they are undertaking. Lenders are hesitant to lend money based on what they believe is a riskier environment, both from a property standpoint and in anticipation of increasing governmental requirements. Owners are unable to sell, believing their property is worth more than current pricing, or to buy, because prices remain high and investors and lenders are few and far between.

While all this is happening, the real estate industry stands still. Money sits idle on the sidelines earning money market returns; banks are investing, not in deals, which would generate economic growth, but in short-term government and other securities that churn paper; and owners hold onto properties that could better serve the economy if purchased by another party.

For landlords, the lack of job growth has left vacant apartments languishing on the residential market, creating a trickled down effect resulting in lower rents and slower rent collections. Lower income makes it more difficult to pay vendors, which makes it harder to keep up with building maintenance and tougher to retain existing tenants and attract the fewer and fewer potential new ones.

We are witnessing the undoing of the real estate industry as we know it. The day-to-day frustration of accomplishing nothing, hoping that something will change in some way by an act of God or an act of Obama is slowly bringing us all to levels of depression. First it's mental, but soon all our savings will run out and we'll find ourselves in an economic one.

We all need to do our part to shake things up a bit. Investors need to understand that they are better off putting their sidelined cash to work, albeit for slightly lower returns than desired, but understanding that many investments they are seeing today are much better than no investment at all. And in an improved economic environment, many of the lowered expectations will actually outperform pro forma returns.

Owners need to get rid of their “dog properties' and accept less profit on them, just to move on. Certainly, the money they perceive they've left on the table will be made up with a new purchase priced at similarly distressed levels, not to mention the psychological benefit of not having to deal with underperforming assets and the adrenaline rush they'll achieve by taking on a new project.

Lastly, lenders need to lend for these new purchases, perhaps less money at slightly higher rates, but lend. They will make up much of the lower loan to value coverage in fees, but more importantly, they will gain customers who will often remember that these banks were there for them in the tough times.

March 12th

Real Estate

Filed under Realtors | No Comments

March 11th

Realty

Filed under Realtors | No Comments

Real Estate by Studio One-One

realtor letters

I have seen various ups and downs in the real estate business in my time. Never has there been such a confluence of frustration, from investors to lenders to owners as I see today.

Investors believe they deserve better returns than they could receive at current prices, based on what they perceive as the level of risk they are undertaking. Lenders are hesitant to lend money based on what they believe is a riskier environment, both from a property standpoint and in anticipation of increasing governmental requirements. Owners are unable to sell, believing their property is worth more than current pricing, or to buy, because prices remain high and investors and lenders are few and far between.

While all this is happening, the real estate industry stands still. Money sits idle on the sidelines earning money market returns; banks are investing, not in deals, which would generate economic growth, but in short-term government and other securities that churn paper; and owners hold onto properties that could better serve the economy if purchased by another party.

For landlords, the lack of job growth has left vacant apartments languishing on the residential market, creating a trickled down effect resulting in lower rents and slower rent collections. Lower income makes it more difficult to pay vendors, which makes it harder to keep up with building maintenance and tougher to retain existing tenants and attract the fewer and fewer potential new ones.

We are witnessing the undoing of the real estate industry as we know it. The day-to-day frustration of accomplishing nothing, hoping that something will change in some way by an act of God or an act of Obama is slowly bringing us all to levels of depression. First it's mental, but soon all our savings will run out and we'll find ourselves in an economic one.

We all need to do our part to shake things up a bit. Investors need to understand that they are better off putting their sidelined cash to work, albeit for slightly lower returns than desired, but understanding that many investments they are seeing today are much better than no investment at all. And in an improved economic environment, many of the lowered expectations will actually outperform pro forma returns.

Owners need to get rid of their “dog properties' and accept less profit on them, just to move on. Certainly, the money they perceive they've left on the table will be made up with a new purchase priced at similarly distressed levels, not to mention the psychological benefit of not having to deal with underperforming assets and the adrenaline rush they'll achieve by taking on a new project.

Lastly, lenders need to lend for these new purchases, perhaps less money at slightly higher rates, but lend. They will make up much of the lower loan to value coverage in fees, but more importantly, they will gain customers who will often remember that these banks were there for them in the tough times.

In Asia Wednesday China's Shanghai Composite Index slid 0.7% to 3,049. In both Japan and Hong Kong, major indexes remained virtually unchanged with the Nikkei 225 Index closing at 10,564 and the Hang Seng ending the day at 21,208.

A decline of 1.5% in the Baltic Dry Index sent shares in shipping companies lower today. The index measures the demand for shipping services and fluctuates according to the cost of shipping cargo around the world. A fall in the index means fewer goods are taking up less room on the massive cargo ships crisscrossing the seas. In other words, demand for stuff is down.

In Japan, Kawasaki Kisen plunged 2.3% and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines sank 1.3% and Nippon Yusen K.K. slid 0.9%. In Hong Kong, Pacific Basin Shipping plunged 2% and China Cosco retreated 1.7%.

Toyota sank 1.4% in today's trading after a recall of Tundra pick-up trucks was expanded across the U.S. Among other problems, the trucks have a corrosion problem that could affect brake lines and allow the spare tire to fall out from underneath the vehicle. Other Japanese car makers rose with Isuzu climbing 1.3%, Suzuki advancing 1.2% and Honda adding 0.2%.

In China, car makers lost value with SAIC Motor plunging 3.7%, FAW Car falling 3% and Ford partner Chongqing Changan Automobile diving 2.8%. But an overall increase in demand around the country for cars and other appliances sent steel producers higher today: Baoshan Steel rose 1.3% and Angang Steel gained 0.3%.

Chinese property companies slipped today after the Chinese statistics bureau released data showing that real estate prices were up 10.7% compared with last year, reports Bloomberg, saying that in some places like Hainan, a vacation destination with beaches and palm trees, prices are up more than 50%. Whispers are swirling that these inflated prices could be a sign of a real bubble, despite arguments that Chinese property is still a great investment. Today Poly Real Estate sank 1.8% and China Vanke lost 1.5%.

In Hong Kong, real estate shares were also lower: Hang Lung plummeted 1.9%, China Overseas Development plunged 1.7% and Sino Land fell 1.3%. Both Henderson Land and New World Development were down 1%.

Meanwhile, Cathay Pacific spiked 4.7% after announcing $503 million in second-half profits — far better than the loss of more than $1 billion it had posted a year earlier, reports Bloomberg. The improvement stems from the sale of an engineering venture and a decrease in the number of flights as a result of falling demand. The company's balance sheet was also improved by employees taking unpaid leave and staff foregoing their 2008 bonuses. But Cathay says passenger numbers are rising again — perhaps it's all those property moguls jetting off to their high-priced homes in Hainan.

March 10th

MLS Real Estate

Filed under Agents | No Comments

Real Estate by Studio One-One

agents online

This is an update on a great series by Kelly Bennett of Voice of San Diego.

First a little background: According to Kelly, in 2008 – after the bubble burst – James McConville bought distressed condos from developers in bulk, and then sold them to straw buyers at inflated prices (individuals with solid credit records who agreed to sign for the loans for a fee). McConville pocketed the difference between the straw buyer price and the bulk price – approximately $12.5 million.

McConville promised to rent the properties, and pay the mortgages from the rental income. Good luck!

This was happening in 2008.

And the update from Kelly Bennett at Voice of San Diego: A Year Later, Losses Pile Up in Complexes Ravaged by Swindle

All of the 81 condos from the Sommerset Villas, Sommerset Woods and Westlake Ranch complexes involved in the scam have been repossessed. Twenty-four have yet to find new buyers. But the other 57 have resold for prices drastically lower than the mortgages were worth, let alone the initial purchase prices.

The U.S. taxpayer is paying for the mounting losses. Across the complexes, the cost to taxpayers is at least $7.8 million.

When the units were just in the beginning stages of foreclosure, it was too soon to tell whether the government-sponsored mortgage companies, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, had definitely purchased the shaky loans.

There is much more in the article, but this ties into another article today from Bloomberg: Fannie, Freddie Ask Banks to Eat Soured Mortgages

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may force lenders including Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. to buy back $21 billion of home loans this year as part of a crackdown on faulty mortgages.

That’s the estimate of Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Chris Kotowski, who says U.S. banks could suffer losses of $7 billion this year when those loans are returned and get marked down to their true value.

Click on graph for larger image.

Kelly provided me with this graphic on the San Diego swindle. This shows the lenders that were swindled. Since most of these loans were sold to Fannie and Freddie, there is a good chance the loans will be pushed back on the lenders – if they still exist. We know JPMorgan is still around!

More from Bloomberg:

The banks have to buy back the loans at par, and then take an impairment, because borrowers usually have stopped paying and the price of the underlying home has plunged. JPMorgan said in a presentation last month that it loses about 50 cents on the dollar for every loan it has to buy back.

The losses will be much higher than 50 cents on the dollar on these loans.

Realpoint's latest report on commercial real estate is a doozy (PDF). You couldn't get a more sobering readout with a shower and a quart of hot coffee.

In January 2010, the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS [Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities] increased by another $4.3 billion, up to $45.94 billion from $41.64 billion a month prior. The overall delinquent unpaid balance is up 326% from one-year ago (when only $10.79 billion of delinquent unpaid balance was reported for January 2009), and is now over 20 times the low point of $2.21 billion in March 2007.

Overall, the total unpaid balance… for the January 2010 remittance was $797.3 billion… Both the delinquent unpaid balance and delinquency percentage over the trailing twelve months are… clearly trending upward.

The total balance of loans in Foreclosure and REO increased for the 27th straight month to $9.64 billion in January 2010 from $9.34 billion in December 2009 and $8.78 billion in November, despite ongoing liquidation activity. The chart also shows the rapid growth of loans reflecting 90-day delinquency in the past 12 months, transitioning swiftly from 30-day defaults into more distressed levels on a monthly basis in 2009, thus supporting our use of such as an early indicator of workouts to come for 2010.

Put simply: brace for more pain in the commercial real estate space.

Well, residential real estate must be improving, right? Not exactly. The following Blytic graphs depict the real estate price index (RPX) in various metro areas since the year 2000.

Here's the graph of home prices in Phoenix, Arizona. Gee, that home-buyer tax credit didn't really work, but at least he was historic, right, Melvin?

Say, Las Vegas is hopping.

Gun-free Chicago — my kind of town. Except for the hundreds of murders each year, thanks to the insane policies of Mayor Daley and the rest of the Democrat machine.

Miami – whyamee?

Mayor Kilpatrick (D-umb) and Governor Granholm (D-umber) certainly worked wonders in Detroit.

At least the masterful leadership in its city and surrounding counties — as well as ultra-careful land use policies — saved Atlanta from… oops.

Thankfully, the Obama administration has created or saved over ninety million green collar jobs. Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner's behavior has been beyond reproach. And the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act has brought much-needed tax relief for small businesses and 95 percent of all working families.

Thank heavens for President Obama and his crack staff of economic advisers who have brought so much real world experience to their current roles. If it weren't for them, I'm not sure what kind of shape this country would be in.

Hat tip: Mish.

March 9th

Realty

Filed under Realtors | No Comments

First Real Estate Shoot - Main Bedroom by .Jazz

realtor letters

(This guest post originally appeared at the author's blog, Matrix)

The Wall Street bonus pool rose 17% and average bonus per person rose 25%.

Wall Street bonuses paid to New York City securities industry employees rose by 17 percent to $20.3 billion in 2009, according to an estimate released today by State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli. Total compensation at the largest securities firms grew even faster and industry profits could exceed an unprecedented $55 billion in 2009, nearly three times greater than the previous all-time record. In 2008, the industry lost a record $42.6 billion.

On the surface this sounds like there will be a big jolt to the NYC regional economy. The sector is an important economic engine, providing 25% of the income from 5% of the jobs. Every job lost on Wall Street causes the loss of 2.5 private sector jobs.

The higher growth in bonuses are bittersweet – while the average per person bonus was up because there was job loss in the sector. Arguably few jobs lost than forecast but it tempers the bonus impact on the real estate economy.

But bonuses are controversial especially when so many are struggling outside of Wall Street. President Obama fell prey to populist sentiment with his “Fat Cats on Wall Street” comments but now doesn’t “begrudge“ them (I’ve never been able to use begrudge in a sentence before).

Bonus income accounts for as much as 50% of total compensation for an individual.

But as John Mack, Morgan Stanley Chairman, has said

“I still don’t think the industry gets it,” Bloomberg reported the veteran banker as saying yesterday during an appearance in Charlotte, North Carolina (hat tip Huffington Post). “The issue is not structure, it is amount.”

My anecdotal feedback is that compensation seems to be about 70% restricted stock and 30% cash. And institutions like UBS are reportedly paying out half of the cash compensation now and half in 6 months.

That knocks the wind out of the “sales” (sorry) for a spring frenzy in the NYC housing market that has grown accustomed to a frenzy over the past decade. Still, it will help but I am skeptical about it helping above seasonal expectations, but who really knows.

Realpoint's latest report on commercial real estate is a doozy (PDF). You couldn't get a more sobering readout with a shower and a quart of hot coffee.

In January 2010, the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS [Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities] increased by another $4.3 billion, up to $45.94 billion from $41.64 billion a month prior. The overall delinquent unpaid balance is up 326% from one-year ago (when only $10.79 billion of delinquent unpaid balance was reported for January 2009), and is now over 20 times the low point of $2.21 billion in March 2007.

Overall, the total unpaid balance… for the January 2010 remittance was $797.3 billion… Both the delinquent unpaid balance and delinquency percentage over the trailing twelve months are… clearly trending upward.

The total balance of loans in Foreclosure and REO increased for the 27th straight month to $9.64 billion in January 2010 from $9.34 billion in December 2009 and $8.78 billion in November, despite ongoing liquidation activity. The chart also shows the rapid growth of loans reflecting 90-day delinquency in the past 12 months, transitioning swiftly from 30-day defaults into more distressed levels on a monthly basis in 2009, thus supporting our use of such as an early indicator of workouts to come for 2010.

Put simply: brace for more pain in the commercial real estate space.

Well, residential real estate must be improving, right? Not exactly. The following Blytic graphs depict the real estate price index (RPX) in various metro areas since the year 2000.

Here's the graph of home prices in Phoenix, Arizona. Gee, that home-buyer tax credit didn't really work, but at least he was historic, right, Melvin?

Say, Las Vegas is hopping.

Gun-free Chicago — my kind of town. Except for the hundreds of murders each year, thanks to the insane policies of Mayor Daley and the rest of the Democrat machine.

Miami – whyamee?

Mayor Kilpatrick (D-umb) and Governor Granholm (D-umber) certainly worked wonders in Detroit.

At least the masterful leadership in its city and surrounding counties — as well as ultra-careful land use policies — saved Atlanta from… oops.

Thankfully, the Obama administration has created or saved over ninety million green collar jobs. Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner's behavior has been beyond reproach. And the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act has brought much-needed tax relief for small businesses and 95 percent of all working families.

Thank heavens for President Obama and his crack staff of economic advisers who have brought so much real world experience to their current roles. If it weren't for them, I'm not sure what kind of shape this country would be in.

Hat tip: Mish.